Homicide is down 15% in Los Angeles County, and homicide investigations are down 12.2%. These statistics from a recent newspaper report, http://www.pasadenastarnews.com/news/ci_11968942 , would be encouraging -- if only accompanied by more analysis than speculation. Only the police agencies compiling the data know better. They know that comparing a snapshot of time against an equivalent period last year offers no great insights or conclusive victories based on such thin statistics. Any number of less than glowing factors could account for such trends. Perhaps murderers, lacking in target practice and shooting discipline, are missing more targets this year than they are striking. Then again, timely access to trauma wards could be saving victims that would otherwise have expired. So, when officials rise to the reporters' bait to offer reasons for the good news, the wise do so with caution and with more of a sense of speculation than bluster. They opine that the reductions in homicide are the result of more aggressive law enforcement, of taking guns and gangs off the street. The accepted logic is that more police resources necessarily result in lower crime.
This is a bold statement, however. It says nothing about what other contributing or inhibiting factors may be at work. A more vigilant citizenry may be observing and reporting crime and suspicious activity in time for a diligent law enforcement cadre to respond proactively. Surveillance cameras, DNA evidence exploitation, news and reality TV programs and tip lines may be making it harder for villains to get away with the worst of crimes. Then again, changing demographic factors may be sliding us all into one of those periodic sweet spots where one criminal class is retiring from center stage before the next generation has grown old and lethal enough to assume the baton. There is also the phenomenon of displacement, whereby hardening of targets in one area simply pushed out crime and criminals to another, less defended area where malefactors face lower risk -- a reminder that the business of crime is like any other business, with risk considerations factoring into the decision about whom to victimize where and when.
What is the reality? Without better data and analysis, declaring any kind of victory over crime based on meager statistics is imprudent on many levels. Not only does it yield an inaccurate picture of what is really going on, it also gives naysayers and budget overseers the ammunition to demand that police cut staff or other resources on the theory that they must not need so many of either any longer. Such cuts would be most unwise, particularly in uncertain economic times when growing discontent in government, business, and American institutions in general may well exacerbate volatile conditions that would be conducive to more outbreaks of workplace violence on the individual level or even civil unrest on a larger scale. Now is neither the time to declare premature successes nor to trim police departments.
-- Nick Catrantzos
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Nick Catrantzos + Tom Goff
- All Secure
- NICK CATRANTZOS is the lead author of the All Secure website and is the emeritus security director for a large public organization. He has also managed security aspects of corporate takeovers, response to international hostage situations, and finding and keeping secrets. He has been board certified in security management, licensed as a private investigator, and certified as an incident commander. He worked as a case officer for a discreet branch of public service. He protected stealth technology at Lockheed and, later, as a consulting security director for both Kroll and Control Risks, he assisted executives with workplace violence cases and with protecting VIPs and critical assets globally in volatile areas. Nick's partner, TOM GOFF, was a captain in the Military Police Corps, U.S. Army Reserve and has a law degree from the University of California at Davis. He is a former reporter for Fortune Magazine, was senior editor at New York Magazine and Esquire, and has provided crisis and communications counsel to senior executives at Fortune 500 companies, including Lockheed, ARCO, Microsoft, Nissan, and Sony Pictures.