"True, you guys in Intel can't ever match the news wires," the general said, "but they don't have to get it right, or stand tall in front of a commander who sends troops into harm's way based on bad information."
That statement -- a surprise endorsement of military intelligence by a career warrior when his staff were piling abuse onto an intelligence unit for lagging behind the media -- retains its currency today. Even more so, if one looks at a Washington Post article proclaiming, "The news is broken" (http://mobile.washingtonpost.com//rss.jsp?rssid=597&item=+http%3a%2f%2fwww.washingtonpost.com%2fwp-syndication%2farticle%2f2009%2f10%2f19%2fAR2009101902988_mobile.xml+&cid=1).
The article's theme that getting it first supersedes getting it right may not be new. But in a world of Internet access and high-bandwidth communications, it is unconscionable to forego the most elemental fact-checking if one is in the business of spreading information. Two enabling forces, though, oppose truth in favor of expediency. The first is agenda-filtered data collection. This bias magnetizes reporter and unvetted story like iron filings to a magnet. They lean to the story that leans with their political and social presets. But the second force is even stronger: inertia. Accept what's handed out. It beats working for a story.
All of this is mildly interesting as long as unfiltered news feeds no important decision or action. The challenge to intelligence agencies and other dealers in corroborated, analytically supported information remains today what it was over 20 years ago when that general spoke those words to this young captain. Don't rush to be the first at the expense of accuracy, but also don't lag so far behind the sound biters that you leave decision makers no alternative to rely on.
- Nick Catrantzos
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
Review: An Excellent Reference on Countering Terrorism
The Counter-Terrorism Puzzle: A Guide for Decision Makers (Hardcover)
Boaz Ganor
New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Publishers, 2005
This is the most thorough, cogent, and intelligently written work on terrorism and the ways to defeat it to grace the open literature in recent times. Unlike the more common offerings in this field, Ganor's work goes to great lengths to avoid or at least identify potential bias and to present opposing views. Nor does the author shy away from tough issues. Deterrence is one such topic. While noting that deterrence can be a matter of image (p. 63), he also recognizes the difference between deterring nations or terrorist organizations vs. deterring individuals or networks (p.64). He analyzes measures intended to deter terrorists, concluding that, ultimately, the attacker becomes used to a given measure and learns to live with it or overcome it (p.74). Yet he also addresses the complexities inherent in making public the thresholds set for deterrents (p.94).
Another example is his thoughtful note that public warnings should only be issued when accompanied by concrete guidelines to follow that are directly related to the warning (p. 260) -- a welcome contrast to the post-9/11 proliferation of nonspecific warnings that often give the appearance of emerging to offset future claims of failing to alert the public.
For clarity, analysis, and insight, Ganor's book is without peer.
- Nick Catrantzos
Also posted on Amazon.com as a book review found useful by 100% of individuals reading it:
http://www.amazon.com/Counter-Terrorism-Puzzle-Guide-Decision-Makers/dp/0765802988/ref=sr_oe_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1255322883&sr=1-1
Boaz Ganor
New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Publishers, 2005
This is the most thorough, cogent, and intelligently written work on terrorism and the ways to defeat it to grace the open literature in recent times. Unlike the more common offerings in this field, Ganor's work goes to great lengths to avoid or at least identify potential bias and to present opposing views. Nor does the author shy away from tough issues. Deterrence is one such topic. While noting that deterrence can be a matter of image (p. 63), he also recognizes the difference between deterring nations or terrorist organizations vs. deterring individuals or networks (p.64). He analyzes measures intended to deter terrorists, concluding that, ultimately, the attacker becomes used to a given measure and learns to live with it or overcome it (p.74). Yet he also addresses the complexities inherent in making public the thresholds set for deterrents (p.94).
Another example is his thoughtful note that public warnings should only be issued when accompanied by concrete guidelines to follow that are directly related to the warning (p. 260) -- a welcome contrast to the post-9/11 proliferation of nonspecific warnings that often give the appearance of emerging to offset future claims of failing to alert the public.
For clarity, analysis, and insight, Ganor's book is without peer.
- Nick Catrantzos
Also posted on Amazon.com as a book review found useful by 100% of individuals reading it:
http://www.amazon.com/Counter-Terrorism-Puzzle-Guide-Decision-Makers/dp/0765802988/ref=sr_oe_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1255322883&sr=1-1
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